6 Years Ago, I Wrote These Words…(No April Fool’s Joke)

With this week’s announcement of the open up of more offshore U.S. oil drilling, I’m reminded of a “treatise” of sorts that I wrote and posted to the Internet-at-large 6 YEARS AGO this week. It’s long and wordy for sure (it wouldn’t be Josh Womack any other way now would it?), but I think it will give a lot of insight into my mindset regarding resources efficiency and how I come at the issues of sustainability. I also think it paints an interesting portrait of where we were then, where we are now and maybe where we’re going as a nation.

Many people – especially in these geographical parts – have a misperception about many of the local folks involved in the local green and sustainability movement. In my conversations with many of the local leaders in our movement, I’m always delighted to know that most of us are really quite moderate and politically centrist. Most of us believe that you can be pro-business and pro-green. With most of us, the goal is “smarter” solutions to the issues we face in our future, not a full-scale, unrealistic deconstruction of the modern world as it is today.

So, for the masochists among you, here’s the read…

- Josh

_______________________________________________________

It seems that this chain e-mail has really made the rounds lately. While it MAY
SEEM like it makes sense, there are some things that one should know about the
retail oil industry before biting off on this plan that seems to coincide with
conventional wisdom. Namely, that over 90% of the price of a gallon of gas is
determined before it reaches the store from which you buy it.

http://www.lifuel.com/gasdollar2003.pdf

The main problem facing us today and in the future is that oil production can no
longer meet demand. The real distressing news is that if we remain on our
petroleum-based economic path, this problem will only get worse and can’t be
reversed.  The ramifications of this reality are shocking, but there is something
you can do to stave off this coming disaster. You are being called on not only to
save the environment and get lower gas prices, you are being called on to SAVE
THE AMERICAN WAY OF LIFE! Please take the time to read the following.

Listen, I’m no raging environmentalist. Sure I partake in my neighborhood
recycling program, but I’m by no means a rabid “tree-hugging” Greenpeace card-carrying,
anti-WTO activist. I come at this greatest issue of our lifetime (yes, even
greater then Terrorism) from almost a complete social and economic standpoint.
I’m not really too concerned about global climate change. Since climbing out of
the trees in Africa, Humans have time and time again shown their ability to adapt
to, and in even thrive in, extreme conditions.

This issue at hand is not really about the AVAILABILITY of oil itself or that the
world’s oil “is running out”. It’s about the availability of INEXPENSIVE OIL.
It’s not just the vehicles on our highways that use gas. Petroleum is used in almost
everything that is manufactured – your cell phone, your computer, your DASANI
water bottle, your ink pens, your baby’s toys, your IPod, every retail sign face,
IT’S ENDLESS. And that same oil is used as often used as a power source
to fuel the factories that make all the things made from oil!

The irony is that the recent acceleration of the American WAY OF LIFE may
ultimately be it’s own demise. As the “Wal-Martization” of industry, i.e. more
products for cheaper, has really stepped up over the last decade, the effects are
inevitable. So that EVERYONE in America can now get those “$29 DVD players” we’ve
had to ship the manufacturing to China. Because the Chinese make it cheaper, our
American population buys more DVD Players then we should be able to because
they’re so cheap. Those DVD players have PLASTIC casings, PLASTIC motherboards
and PLASTIC remote controls – PLASTIC all made from refined petroleum. Because
the American Consumers are able to buy so many extra DVD players, and countless
other goods, the Chinese (a nation of 1.2 BILLION) worker’s standard of living
ALSO rises, affording them their first opportunities to buy their own DVD Players
and CARS. DVD players that are made from OIL and cars that run on OIL. on 3/30/04
it was announced that 20% OF THE CHINESE POPULATION IS NOW MIDDLE CLASS. With a
population of 1.2 BILLION that means that China’s MIDDLE CLASS is the same size
AS 90% OF THE U.S.’S TOTAL POPULATION!

The oil industry has known for 30+ years that they were lagging the in
exploration and the development of more efficient means of accessing and refining
the product. Not to mention, there was a wholesale lack of attention to
developing alternative fuel resources and technologies on any substantial level.
This current reality was projected and theorized by economists and oil industry
experts long ago. Although they’ve faced some legitimate hurdles, for the most
part, they’ve neglected to put THEIR PROFITS back into adequate infrastructure
development. They underestimated not only the American consumer’s thirst, but
also the subsequent effects of this “more for cheaper” mentality that has now
permeates EVERY aspect of our society.

Hence, demand IS starting to outstrip production capacity. The end of “CHEAP OIL”
will affect the entire globe. This phenomenon is referred to as “PEAK OIL.” In a
nutshell, the PEAK OIL theory details the global ramifications if the demand for
AFFORDABLE OIL surpasses the production capability. Namely, it predicts increased
global hostility, more wars and conflict, starvation, population die-off and
other assorted “warm and fuzzy” things.  There are a few things that could help
get us off this course, but they have to HAPPEN NOW (well, actually, they should
have started 20 years ago).

One might assume that somebody would come across this information if they were a
conspiracy theorist or militant environmentalist/conservationist. I’m neither of
these but I came to learn of this situation through other angles.

In my line of work, I sometimes work with both independent petroleum marketers
(your mom-and-pop convenience stores) and the big global petro-conglomerates (BP,
Shell, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil etc.). So I frequently get information on the
status of various parts of their industry – retail, prospecting, refinement,
taxation, etc. When we went into Iraq last March, I started paying a little more
attention to reports across the board.

With this White House Administration, there were clearly several objectives as
outlined by the Cabinet Level Advisors that were to be achieved. Known as the
NeoCons (i.e. Bush’s “post  9/11″ strategic advisors Paul Wolfowitz, Karl Rove,
Rumsfeld etc. – see http://www.newamericancentury.org for details on this group),
this non-mainstream group of ideologues began formulating their positions in the
1960’s-1970′s and have increasingly gained political clout and influence ever
since. This is especially true since the turn of the century. Their particular
goals for Iraq were documented and as follows…

Obviously, one main goal was the removal of Saddam Hussein. Second being the
creation of a logistically sound secondary base for operations in the region
(outside of Saudi Arabia). And of course the third being the blatant, most
important yet unspoken one. That objective being access, not to just oil, but
“cheap oil.”

Saddam Hussien has been politically and technically impotent for years.
Regardless of one’s political affiliation, Saddam Hussein was NOT an IMMEDIATE
threat to the U.S. or our direct interests. But to the Bush Administration’s
defense, they couldn’t exactly come out and tell Congress and the American people
the real need for Hussein’s ouster. The threat of terror and Iraqi liberation you
can sell, but the three reasons given above never would have flown. We needed
access to massive amounts of easily extracted crude oil and we needed it quickly.

So o.k. then, the opportunity to “legitimately” go after Iraq came about due to
9/11. And while we’re taking out a regional threat and establishing a centralized
base of operations, we’re mostly going after the oil. Fine, cool, our way of life
protected and served. Makes sense…kind of.

So with impending control, or at least strong influence over these resources, I
wondered if the Global Petroleum Corporations would really pass along any
“savings” to the American Consumer if they were to have access to cheaper oil.
During this time, I was also beginning to get more press and info on pilot
alternative energy programs (electric cars, biodiesel, electric hybrids, ethanol, hydrogen,
etc.) through my usual sources.

Along the logic lines, I start investigating these new developments, quite
honestly, to see if there are developing markets in which I could invest and/or
from which I could personally profit. The more I discovered, the more the big
picture started to coalesce. The big oil companies and Bush cabinet-level
staffers know about this forthcoming disaster. After all, Bush’s cabinet are
mostly Big Oil veterans! Overt (Iraqi War, Halliburton contracts, big alt energy
AND traditional petro tax incentives, etc.) actions are self-evident, but the
more you look at, the more you learn that their actions represent a mad scramble
to stave off this impending chaos.

For the past two years, you’ve had renowned economists and big oil executives
dropping hints to this situation in code speak all throughout the
press. Again, some theorists have also been predicting this for decades. Well,
now its here and we’re ill-prepared for it. Getting to the Middle East’s
resources is a stop gap measure, an effort to “maintain” standard levels of
pricing if you will. Again, it’s not about HAVING enough oil. It’s about being
able to provide it at a cheap cost. That means producing it at the level needed
for consumption.

Quite frankly, the big oil companies just didn’t reinvest enough back into
exploration and infrastructure and more importantly neglected a needed shift to
alternative and DOMESTIC sources of fuel. Also, they underestimated the demand
for non-transportation uses of the product and the economies built around the
production, sale and use of those “oil made” goods globally. The mad dash to
reconstitute the Iraqi petroleum infrastructure was paramount. We needed
something quick to ease the pressure.

In this era of the “War On Terror” how can we distance and (of course) protect
ourselves from those in the world that “hate us” and wish to cause harm and panic
among America and its interests? The current method being employed is the threat
and execution of military action against those who we deem as engaging in,
representing or supporting terrorism. While the threat and use of force may
provide short-term benefits, ultimately it may exacerbate the problem. Also,
globally, this approach incites skepticism. The concern of our allies and
adversaries is that we will act arbitrarily or subjectively on this mandate. Or
that we will use this mandate for subversive gains.

Another, and maybe more long-term beneficial way to thwart terrorism, is to quit
meddling on their turf. Getting rid of our interests there would help immensely. Our
allies and adversaries alike are becoming more and more threatened by our
preservationist actions. It’s because they see the proverbial writing on the wall
as well.

The details and statistics exist to support that this phenomenon is indeed
happening, already exist. In the coming months, more and more of this will
publicly surface.

I’m deadly serious when I say that the American way of life (and civilization as
a whole) is seriously threatened. We’ve lost the availability to “Cheap Oil” and
the short-term ramifications over the next decade could far supercede any massive,
traditional business undertakings that could thwart this impending disaster.
So you want to be a real PATRIOT? Do you want to really help fight TERRORISM? Buy
an electric, electric-hybrid or BioDiesel capable car. You’ll be keeping AMERICAN dollars IN AN
AMERICAN INDUSTRY instead of shipping them over to the INDUSTRIAL REGIME –
OPEC! Without this dependence on their “product,” we’ll no longer have the need
to have relations with the oppressive Saudis and their tyrannical neighbors. No
presence in the Middle East nullifies the Islamic Extremists’ main grievance
against the West – our political and industrial entrenchment in their holy land.
With their driving principle neutered, subsequent REACTIONS to their threats or
terrorist acts will be UNDENIABLY and without any doubt justified to the entire
global community.

My first child turns 2 in June. I enjoy our American lifestyle. I want my son to experience all of the blessings our society currently offers us. But, I fear that if we don’t act soon, all he’ll only know a world of hostility, fear and hopelessness.

_______________________________________________________

Advertisement